There are many tricky questions in decision theory. In this post, I’ll argue that the choice between CDT and EDT isn’t one of them. Causal decision theory (CDT) evaluates expected utilities under causal interventions, while evidential decision theory (EDT) evaluates conditional expected utilities. Humans tend to have strong intuitions in favor of CDT, but I’ll … More EDT vs CDT
Here are ~32 ways in which I think US policy could be better. Many of these are unrealistic changes. In some cases I think there is a corresponding marginal change that we should advocate for, but in some cases it’s just wishful thinking. You should read this post in the same spirit that you’d read … More Policy potpourri
I’ve been playing some Avalon recently, and became curious about winning probabilities under perfect play. (Avalon is the most common variant of The Resistance, rules are here, this post probably won’t be interesting if you haven’t played.) In this post I consider the version of the game where players are able to send secret messages … More Solving Avalon with whispering
Summary: We can get better estimates of epistemic virtue by considering changes in people’s beliefs, rather than only comparing their predictions to reality. But if we use this information, people who want to appear virtuous are motivated to lie about their beliefs, resulting in “sluggish” updating in a predictable direction (or a failure to update … More Epistemic incentives and sluggish updating
(Warning: frivolous.) It’s not obvious what properties of games determine whether they are easy or hard. Poker has imperfect information while Sokoban can have very long solutions; which is harder? Could the lack of communication between teammates in Bridge make the game more difficult? This post explores the computational complexity of natural classes of games, … More On the complexity of games
The Elephant in the Brain is the most cheerfully cynical book I have read. It argues for a simple core claim: Our brains are built to act in our self-interest while at the same time trying hard not to appear selfish in front of other people. And in order to throw them off the trail, our brains … More The Elephant in the Brain
If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we may not take all life on Earth with us. That leaves hope for another intelligent civilization to arise; if they do, we could potentially help them by leaving carefully chosen messages. In this post I’ll argue that despite sounding kind of crazy, this could potentially compare favorably to … More Sending a message to the future
I enjoyed season 1 of Westworld; I’ve been watching season 2, but regret how little sense it seems to make. That said, if you are willing to speculate enough about what’s happening offscreen, you can make almost anything consistent. If you have trouble with fiction that doesn’t make sense, I hope you find that this FAQ … More Westworld apologetics: an FAQ
Post-apocalyptic 1. Hundreds of millions of years after civilization destroys itself and all complex life on Earth, human-level intelligence emerges again and sophisticated civilizations begin to form. Told as alternate history in which humans actually evolved in the shadow of a much more ancient alien civilization. The protagonist is an archaeologist and intellectual living in the … More Eight unusual science fiction plots
My computer has a problem. I can either send it in for repairs or try to fix it myself. If I send it in for repairs, it will definitely cost me 1 hour. If I try to fix it myself I’m not sure how long it will take. I decide to try to fix it … More On getting unlucky
